Predicting ecological & economic outcomes of trade
Co-researcher
Brendan Wintle, Tom Kompas, Pia Lentini, Mark Burgman, Brett Bryan, Joshua Lawler
Summary
Trade and biodiversity are key drivers of our economic prosperity. One delivers direct economic benefits while the other underpins our natural capital through the provision of vital ecosystem services such as pollination, clean air and water, and spiritual and aesthetic values. However, trade can have strong positive or negative impacts on natural systems by, for example, driving efficiencies that reduce the pressure for conversion of habitats to agricultural or industrial land; or conversely, driving land-use changes that are more damaging to the environment than current uses. Without explicit analysis, it is not possible to predict the impacts of current trade or changes to trade policy on biodiversity. This project is significant because it seeks to explicitly analyse, for the first time, the direct and indirect impacts and benefits of trade on our greatest asset; the natural environment. The project will draw together the pressing trade-related biodiversity concerns of national government agencies in Australia and throughout Asia-Pacific, providing a template for future trade policy evaluations.
Integrated components of the biodiversity model
Basic methodological advancements will be required to achieve the economic analysis at a spatial and commodity resolution relevant to land-use and biodiversity outcomes, and to achieve biodiversity analysis at the grain and extent required to understand the influence of trade, land-use and introduced species on persistence. The research will be applied in the analysis of trade policy options for their economic and environmental outcomes. This research will enhance Australia’s knowledge base and research potential by providing integrated modelling tools that can be used to explore a question of global relevance. It will build Australia’s capacity to respond to environmental risks and opportunities arising from increasing international trade, land-use change and invasive species as they interact with other environmental drivers. This will be done by integrating research from biophysical, social and economic systems, thereby addressing the research priority in the manner favoured in the government’s research capability statement.